"Duty Declaration": What Will Trump's Tariff Threat Concerning BRICS Countries Lead To?

Donald Trump has announced the introduction of additional 10 percent tariffs on countries “supporting the anti-American policy of BRICS.” It is very difficult to find even a grain of logic in this decision. One can only assume that it is somehow connected with another step by the White House: the dates for the entry into force of previously announced tariffs on dozens of US trading partners have been postponed from July 9 to August 1. Apparently, in anticipation of new “deals” on mutual trade.

"There will be no exceptions," the president wrote on the Truth Social social network. Earlier, in January, he threatened to punish BRICS countries with 100 percent tariffs for trying to "replace the dollar in international trade or elsewhere." On Sunday, July 6, the leaders of the alliance's member states, gathered for a summit in Brazil, expressed "grave concerns about unilateral tariff measures" in a joint statement. Which, in their opinion, could damage the global economy, The Guardian notes.

That same day, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN that Trump was going to send letters to the heads of about 100 US trading partners warning that “if they don’t get things moving, the tariff levels announced on April 2 will return on August 1.” At that time, the talk was about introducing a basic tariff rate of 10% for most countries and additional duties of up to 50%. According to The Guardian, the new date of August 1 gives importers a three-week reprieve, but at the same time plunges them into a state of complete insecurity about Trump’s next steps.

"It is still completely unclear which countries "supporting the anti-American policy of BRICS" could be subject to duties, since the criteria themselves are very vague," says leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global Natalia Milchakova. "Neither Trump himself nor people from his team explain how this policy is manifested. As we know, the main mission of BRICS is mutual trade and economic cooperation, and not confrontation with anyone. If this means abandoning the dollar, this means that Trump will have to increase duties by 10% for almost all countries. Which today, to one degree or another, are diversifying their currency reserves, reducing the share of the "American" and increasing the share of investment gold, and not at all the currencies of the BRICS countries."

According to the World Gold Council, along with the People's Bank of China, the central banks of the US's NATO partner countries are highly active in the market for this precious metal. Including Poland, the Czech Republic, and Turkey, as well as a number of non-BRICS states in the Asia-Pacific region and Central Asia. According to the IMF, the share of the yuan in the international reserves of regulators was only 2.3% at the beginning of 2025, and the currencies of the other nine BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, the UAE, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Indonesia) are not yet in demand as global reserves. Thus, the MK interlocutor reasons, it is unclear how exactly the alliance can harm the United States.

However, according to Milchakova, it is possible that Trump's aggressive foreign trade policy will ultimately lead to the expansion of BRICS. In this case, the bloc, which maintains neutrality towards the United States, will become a safe haven for states that refuse to trade with American partners because of tariffs and begin to look for alternative markets.

"The problem for the US is that, from a formal point of view, progress has only been achieved in negotiations with China, Great Britain, Vietnam, and maybe a couple of other partners," says Nikita Maslennikov, a leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies. "As for the rest, a difficult choice arises: either set the April, very strict parameters of trade duties, or push countries to take some compromise steps in the time remaining until August 1. I think that Trump's statement regarding additional 10 percent duties for those who "support the anti-American policy of BRICS" is connected precisely with the second option. The White House can include anyone in this category - Japan, South Korea, Canada, or the EU states. Negotiations with all of them have not yet been completed."

By and large, Maslennikov sums up, what we see from Trump is another routine declaration that will not have any fateful consequences. It is an attempt to push countries stuck in the negotiation process to take some more active actions. And the thesis about “anti-American policy” hangs in the air: the idea of ​​a single BRICS currency has not been implemented, and the alliance does not yet have its own mechanism for cross-border settlements for trade and investment.